Doctor's agree, he was poisoned.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
I did not realize that I liked the 60 Minutes Dylan interview...
Until I read this piece in CounterPunch. I haven't laughed so hard in months. I came away thinking that Richard Oxman needs to work out a few demons. The interview wasn't revealing, Dylan had all the interviewing charm as John Ford, when asked a straightforward question, he gave a crooked answer - standard Dylan fare. That's hardly a reason for Richard to get bent out of shape pouting that Dylan Thomas is the only Dylan that isn't dead to him.
Monday, December 06, 2004
Dan Blumenthal describes a 'Unhelpful China'
here.
He's got some good points, though I think the Bush administration already sees China as a strategic competitor. That was one of Bush's first policy statements after 2000. That Bush might draw a happy face on the relationship doesn't necessarily change that.
My take on China is this: they have followed the vision of Deng Xiaoping who said China must open markets, allow some capitalism and avoid confrontation with the U.S. After the century they've had, living under Mao for decades, and now feeling the first traces of prosperity, that probably sounds like sage advice. I seriously doubt China would resort to military force to keep their N. Korean buffer. I'm not sure how successful we've been pushing China on N. Korea, but I suspect our diplomacy has been more fruitful that Blumenthal thinks. Taiwan is a different story. China seems intent on absorbing them. Our position is pretty clear: Taiwan and the mainland will re-unite when they agree two. In other words, not while the mainland is communist. A classic standoff, but one that China would retaliate to any undue provocation.
China's economy is the worrisome part. Much of their growth is because of artificially cheap labor (a result of the yuan fixed to the dollar, making it undervalued and artificially stable), a herd mentality by foreign investors that have convinced themselves that China is the place to be, and mammoth government projects like most of the building in Pu Dong or the Three Gorges dam. Back in 2001, you couldn't sling a dead cat without hitting some infrastructure work along a road way or the demolition of old neighborhoods to make room for industrial complexes. On the one hand, it is good that the Chinese economy is growing. However, their growth is in a race with their unemployment. Their banking system is corrupt and favors pro-government business. The projects that the government oversees are woefully inefficient and costly. Capitalism has not let the people down, but government control has. Yet, the young people are largely hyper nationalists. When the economy jumps the rails, it won't be the Party that they blame, but the U.S. But that's a ways off. Until then, we should pressure them on human rights, show some resolve to defend Taiwan, urge democracy and reform, and get them to take off their training wheels.
He's got some good points, though I think the Bush administration already sees China as a strategic competitor. That was one of Bush's first policy statements after 2000. That Bush might draw a happy face on the relationship doesn't necessarily change that.
My take on China is this: they have followed the vision of Deng Xiaoping who said China must open markets, allow some capitalism and avoid confrontation with the U.S. After the century they've had, living under Mao for decades, and now feeling the first traces of prosperity, that probably sounds like sage advice. I seriously doubt China would resort to military force to keep their N. Korean buffer. I'm not sure how successful we've been pushing China on N. Korea, but I suspect our diplomacy has been more fruitful that Blumenthal thinks. Taiwan is a different story. China seems intent on absorbing them. Our position is pretty clear: Taiwan and the mainland will re-unite when they agree two. In other words, not while the mainland is communist. A classic standoff, but one that China would retaliate to any undue provocation.
China's economy is the worrisome part. Much of their growth is because of artificially cheap labor (a result of the yuan fixed to the dollar, making it undervalued and artificially stable), a herd mentality by foreign investors that have convinced themselves that China is the place to be, and mammoth government projects like most of the building in Pu Dong or the Three Gorges dam. Back in 2001, you couldn't sling a dead cat without hitting some infrastructure work along a road way or the demolition of old neighborhoods to make room for industrial complexes. On the one hand, it is good that the Chinese economy is growing. However, their growth is in a race with their unemployment. Their banking system is corrupt and favors pro-government business. The projects that the government oversees are woefully inefficient and costly. Capitalism has not let the people down, but government control has. Yet, the young people are largely hyper nationalists. When the economy jumps the rails, it won't be the Party that they blame, but the U.S. But that's a ways off. Until then, we should pressure them on human rights, show some resolve to defend Taiwan, urge democracy and reform, and get them to take off their training wheels.
This may be a rehashing of old news,
but I thought it was worth posting because the conventional wisdom is the Powells low point was his WMD speech before the Security Council. That's a pity.
Sunday, December 05, 2004
A snapshot from 1998
before the War on Terror & the invasion of Iraq, France was displaying curious behavior towards our enforcement U.N. resolutions.
Friday, December 03, 2004
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
UN looks at making changes
from the NYTimes
"One alternative would add 6 new permanent members - the likely candidates are Brazil, Germany, India, Japan, Egypt and either Nigeria or South Africa - as well as 3 new two-year term members.
The other would create a new tier of 8 semipermanent members chosen for renewable four-year terms and one additional two-year term seat to the existing 10."
Bad idea. The problems with the security council will only be worsened by making it bigger. Why not just call the General Assembly the Security Council? I would propose taking France off the permanent seat status and replacing them with Japan. That way, there's a regional counter to China's seat. Or, if there's such a push to get Germany at the table, we should combine the French/German seats into one EU seat, especially if they move forward on the joint EU special forces.
I'd be curious to hear more about reforms to the Human Rights Commission.
"One alternative would add 6 new permanent members - the likely candidates are Brazil, Germany, India, Japan, Egypt and either Nigeria or South Africa - as well as 3 new two-year term members.
The other would create a new tier of 8 semipermanent members chosen for renewable four-year terms and one additional two-year term seat to the existing 10."
Bad idea. The problems with the security council will only be worsened by making it bigger. Why not just call the General Assembly the Security Council? I would propose taking France off the permanent seat status and replacing them with Japan. That way, there's a regional counter to China's seat. Or, if there's such a push to get Germany at the table, we should combine the French/German seats into one EU seat, especially if they move forward on the joint EU special forces.
I'd be curious to hear more about reforms to the Human Rights Commission.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Good economic news
According to this article: "Core personal consumption expenditures inflation, excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged at a 0.7 per cent rate in the quarter - the lowest reading since the 1960s."
Bush was on his game today in Canada
He went to a troubled, bitter neighbor (& friend) and he stood his ground while affirming his appreciation of Canada. I liked his cocksure response to the following question:
Q: My question is for President Bush. And then, Prime Minister, if you would respond en Francais, s'il vous plait? In the days after September 11th, thousands of Canadians went to Parliament Hill to demonstrate solidarity with the U.S. -- and, in fact, in cities across the country. Yet, public opinion polls and other evidence suggest that now, today, our peoples are, in fact, diverging; that, in fact, our peoples are drifting apart. Why do you think that is? And do you have any responsibility for it?
BUSH: You know, I haven't seen the polls you look at, and we just had a poll in our country where people decided that the foreign policy of the Bush administration ought to be -- stay in place for four more years. And it's a foreign policy that works with our neighbors. Trade between our countries has never been stronger. But it's a foreign policy that also understands that we've got an obligation to defend our security. I made some decisions obviously, that some in Canada didn't agree with, like, for example, when we removed Saddam Hussein and enforcing the demands of the United Nations Security Council.
And then after recounting a couple of points of cooperation, he adds:
No, look, I fully understand there are some in my country -- probably in your country and around the world -- that do not believe that Iraq has the capacity of self-government, that they're willing to sign those people up for tyranny. That's not what I think. And that's not what a lot of Americans think. And they believe that democracy is possible in Iraq. That's a legitimate point to debate. But I'm the kind of fellow who does what I think is right, and will continue to do what I think is right. I'll consult with our friends and neighbors, but if I think it's right to remove Saddam Hussein for the security of the United States, that's the course of action I'll take. And some people don't like that; I understand that. But that's a good thing about a democracy, people can express themselves freely.
I, frankly, felt like the reception we received on the way in from the airport was very warm and hospitable, and I want to thank the Canadian people who came out to wave -- with all five fingers -- for -- (laughter) -- for their hospitality. (Laughter.)
Bush had a good response to a Mad Cow/cattle trade question. It wasn't exactly what they wanted to hear, but it was forthright and optimistic:
BUSH: Look, the Prime Minister has expressed the -- a great deal of frustration that the issue hasn't been resolved yet. And I can understand his level of frustration. There are a series of regulations that are required by U.S. law, and the latest step has been that the Agriculture Department sent over some proposed regulations to handle this issue to what's called the Office of Management and Budget. This is a part of my office. I have sent word over that they need to expedite that request as quickly as possible.
I fully understand the cattle business; I understand the pressures placed upon Canadian ranchers. I believe that, as quickly as possible, young cows ought to be allowed go across our border. I understand the integrated nature of the cattle business and I hope we can get this issue solved as quickly as possible.
There's a bureaucracy involved and I readily concede we've got one. I don't know if you've got bureaucracy here in Canada or not, but we've got one in America, and there are a series of rules that have to be met in order for us to be able to allow the trafficking of cows back and forth, particularly those 30 months and younger. So we're working as quickly as we can. And I understand the impact it's had on your industry here.
Q: My question is for President Bush. And then, Prime Minister, if you would respond en Francais, s'il vous plait? In the days after September 11th, thousands of Canadians went to Parliament Hill to demonstrate solidarity with the U.S. -- and, in fact, in cities across the country. Yet, public opinion polls and other evidence suggest that now, today, our peoples are, in fact, diverging; that, in fact, our peoples are drifting apart. Why do you think that is? And do you have any responsibility for it?
BUSH: You know, I haven't seen the polls you look at, and we just had a poll in our country where people decided that the foreign policy of the Bush administration ought to be -- stay in place for four more years. And it's a foreign policy that works with our neighbors. Trade between our countries has never been stronger. But it's a foreign policy that also understands that we've got an obligation to defend our security. I made some decisions obviously, that some in Canada didn't agree with, like, for example, when we removed Saddam Hussein and enforcing the demands of the United Nations Security Council.
And then after recounting a couple of points of cooperation, he adds:
No, look, I fully understand there are some in my country -- probably in your country and around the world -- that do not believe that Iraq has the capacity of self-government, that they're willing to sign those people up for tyranny. That's not what I think. And that's not what a lot of Americans think. And they believe that democracy is possible in Iraq. That's a legitimate point to debate. But I'm the kind of fellow who does what I think is right, and will continue to do what I think is right. I'll consult with our friends and neighbors, but if I think it's right to remove Saddam Hussein for the security of the United States, that's the course of action I'll take. And some people don't like that; I understand that. But that's a good thing about a democracy, people can express themselves freely.
I, frankly, felt like the reception we received on the way in from the airport was very warm and hospitable, and I want to thank the Canadian people who came out to wave -- with all five fingers -- for -- (laughter) -- for their hospitality. (Laughter.)
Bush had a good response to a Mad Cow/cattle trade question. It wasn't exactly what they wanted to hear, but it was forthright and optimistic:
BUSH: Look, the Prime Minister has expressed the -- a great deal of frustration that the issue hasn't been resolved yet. And I can understand his level of frustration. There are a series of regulations that are required by U.S. law, and the latest step has been that the Agriculture Department sent over some proposed regulations to handle this issue to what's called the Office of Management and Budget. This is a part of my office. I have sent word over that they need to expedite that request as quickly as possible.
I fully understand the cattle business; I understand the pressures placed upon Canadian ranchers. I believe that, as quickly as possible, young cows ought to be allowed go across our border. I understand the integrated nature of the cattle business and I hope we can get this issue solved as quickly as possible.
There's a bureaucracy involved and I readily concede we've got one. I don't know if you've got bureaucracy here in Canada or not, but we've got one in America, and there are a series of rules that have to be met in order for us to be able to allow the trafficking of cows back and forth, particularly those 30 months and younger. So we're working as quickly as we can. And I understand the impact it's had on your industry here.
China 'gray lists' its intellectuals
China still insists on stifling free speech.
Speaking of the intellectual movement in China: "There has been a further split in recent years, with infighting among some intellectuals over whether they should be critics or supporters of market capitalism."
I have a solution: for every free market thinker China wants to get rid of, the U.S. will offer them one of our prize intellectuals in return - harvested from our top college campuses. In this way, people like Noam Chomsky can enjoy the fruits of utopia (where state favored institutions all begin with Peoples' this or Peoples' that) and the gagged Chinese thinker can experience freedom of expression. It's a win-win.
Speaking of the intellectual movement in China: "There has been a further split in recent years, with infighting among some intellectuals over whether they should be critics or supporters of market capitalism."
I have a solution: for every free market thinker China wants to get rid of, the U.S. will offer them one of our prize intellectuals in return - harvested from our top college campuses. In this way, people like Noam Chomsky can enjoy the fruits of utopia (where state favored institutions all begin with Peoples' this or Peoples' that) and the gagged Chinese thinker can experience freedom of expression. It's a win-win.
France admits to firing on demonstrators
Monday, November 29, 2004
Ukraine updates
Here's a couple of maps that show the division in Ukraine, which I found off the Corner. The latest blogging I've seen (via Instapundit) is here. Thus far, the most comprehensive article about the nature of the vote fraud was this Telegraph piece.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Happy Thanksgiving
I hope you all have a good holiday. If any of you are passing through OKC, let me know.
Cat Stevens condemns the murder of Theo van Gogh
Okay, not really. The winner of the Man for Peace 2004 award (no doubt for his 70's work), along with the rest of the artistic community, has been silent on the matter.
I've searched and searched...
but I haven't been able to find any comments from Jimmy Carter regarding the Ukrainian election. I thought he was supposed to be all over this election stuff.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Shave and a haircut...
Nothing can happen to a Palestinian without accusations that Israel is to blame. Here it be noted that Fatah & Hamas and other Palestinian groups are 100% not responsible for their own conditions or actions.
Monday, November 22, 2004
Belmont Club is keeping up on the Kevin Sites video
Although I still don't see what the fuss was about, the way the video was handled wasn't due to Kevin Sites - so it looks I was too quick to condemn him.
Update: LGF chimes in.
Update: LGF chimes in.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Wash Post drops Ted Rall
Under their new criteria, the DC rag wants their cartoonists to actually be funny and not just tasteless and abrasive. But Rall doesn't see it that way:
"More importantly, I forgot the editorial cartoonist's obligation to comfort the afflicted while afflicting the comfortable. I got the latter in that cartoon at the expense of the former. Special-needs children face a lot of challenges; they don't need, or deserve, mocking from me. ... The cartoon was effective in its way, but it could have been better."
Pretentious to the end.
"More importantly, I forgot the editorial cartoonist's obligation to comfort the afflicted while afflicting the comfortable. I got the latter in that cartoon at the expense of the former. Special-needs children face a lot of challenges; they don't need, or deserve, mocking from me. ... The cartoon was effective in its way, but it could have been better."
Pretentious to the end.
Remember when.....
the GOP was the party of fiscal responsibility? We used to have tax-and-spend Democrats, but now we have tax-cut-and-spend Republicans.
At least it gives me an opportunity to talk to my 19-month-old son, when I have to explain to him why he has to shoulder our tax burden.
At least it gives me an opportunity to talk to my 19-month-old son, when I have to explain to him why he has to shoulder our tax burden.
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Shooting an unarmed man
This soldier's mistake was in not remembering he was on camera. While I wouldn't advocate shooting wounded, unarmed people, I'm not going to second-guess a solidier who has already been shot while fighting a war against insurgents. While politically embarassing for the U.S., and certainly confirming Arabs' most negative impressions of us, this guy erred on what was the side of caution, given the situation he was in. Erring in the other direction could have killed him with a different prisoner in similar circumstances.
Friday, November 12, 2004
Roadblock cleared on the roadmap to peace
It was probably time for Arafat to go. He had got the Palestinians to Oslo, but stalled out there. He walked away from a deal with Barak in 2000, and the result has been 4 years of violence. The U.S. tried to marginalize him, but could not remove him. The Palestinians would never have voted him out of office.
This is a golden opportunity to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. If the U.S. uses its leverage with Israel, we could make it happen.
Of course, there are some Palestinians who are still opposed to the existence of Israel.
This is a golden opportunity to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. If the U.S. uses its leverage with Israel, we could make it happen.
Of course, there are some Palestinians who are still opposed to the existence of Israel.
Election postmortem
The blackboxvoting.org types annoy me. To make the case that fraud and/or recount malfunctions would turn the election, you would have to say that not only were 3.5 million votes incorrectly credited to Bush, but that no votes were incorrectly credited to Kerry. The truth is that Bush delivered a message that a majority of the American voters preferred to Kerry's message.
Part of the problem was the Anybody But Bushers (me included). I don't know that Kerry defined a vision that was distinctly different than Bush's. Granted, that may have been a vision of denying rights to gays and outlawing abortions (if abortions are outlawed, then will only outlaws have abortions?), but that's what made the difference.
The Republicans did the Dems a favor by chopping off Daschle. This (plus Gephardt's retirement) gives the Dems a chance for fresh blood in Congress.
During Bush's acceptance speech, I dropped a number of f-bombs. Clearly, a president who squandered 90% approval ratings for political advantage isn't all that interested in reaching across the aisle, unless it's to bitch-slap the opposition.
No more northeastern senators for the nomination. That hasn't worked since before Nixon. Look to the southern governors (all 4 of them). A governorship is an excellent place to gain executive experience. And, quite frankly, the Dems are woefully short of leaders who can relate or appear to relate to average Americans.
So much for Kerry's whim that he could win the contest without the South.
One element of the vote that completely perplexed me is the contingent of people who felt Bush got us into the Iraq mess, so he should be the one to get us out of it. In corporate America, you get fired and replaced for major snafus.
At least it's all on the Republicans now. No more blaming Clinton.
Part of the problem was the Anybody But Bushers (me included). I don't know that Kerry defined a vision that was distinctly different than Bush's. Granted, that may have been a vision of denying rights to gays and outlawing abortions (if abortions are outlawed, then will only outlaws have abortions?), but that's what made the difference.
The Republicans did the Dems a favor by chopping off Daschle. This (plus Gephardt's retirement) gives the Dems a chance for fresh blood in Congress.
During Bush's acceptance speech, I dropped a number of f-bombs. Clearly, a president who squandered 90% approval ratings for political advantage isn't all that interested in reaching across the aisle, unless it's to bitch-slap the opposition.
No more northeastern senators for the nomination. That hasn't worked since before Nixon. Look to the southern governors (all 4 of them). A governorship is an excellent place to gain executive experience. And, quite frankly, the Dems are woefully short of leaders who can relate or appear to relate to average Americans.
So much for Kerry's whim that he could win the contest without the South.
One element of the vote that completely perplexed me is the contingent of people who felt Bush got us into the Iraq mess, so he should be the one to get us out of it. In corporate America, you get fired and replaced for major snafus.
At least it's all on the Republicans now. No more blaming Clinton.
Realpolitik
I'm not crazy about Kissinger's tenure as Secretary of State (and National Security Adviser at the same time), but he presents a compelling big picture look at the post 9-11 world.
"Democracy in the West evolved over centuries. It required first a church independent of the state; then the Reformation, which imposed pluralism of religion; the Enlightenment, which asserted the autonomy of reason from both church and state; the Age of Discovery, which broadened horizons; and finally capitalism, with its emphasis on competition and the market. None of these conditions exists in the Islamic world."
"In the potential cauldron after the January elections, some degree of internationalization is the only realistic path toward stability inside Iraq and sustained domestic support in America. The survival of the political process depends in the first instance on security—for which the United States retains the major responsibility—but ultimately on international acceptance to enable the Iraqi government to be perceived as representing indigenous aspirations."
"Unilateralism for its own sake is self-defeating. But so is abstract multilateralism. The former absorbs purpose into a sense of special national mission; the latter waters down purpose in a quest for a formal consensus. The challenge for America is to reconcile consultation with vast power."
"Democracy in the West evolved over centuries. It required first a church independent of the state; then the Reformation, which imposed pluralism of religion; the Enlightenment, which asserted the autonomy of reason from both church and state; the Age of Discovery, which broadened horizons; and finally capitalism, with its emphasis on competition and the market. None of these conditions exists in the Islamic world."
"In the potential cauldron after the January elections, some degree of internationalization is the only realistic path toward stability inside Iraq and sustained domestic support in America. The survival of the political process depends in the first instance on security—for which the United States retains the major responsibility—but ultimately on international acceptance to enable the Iraqi government to be perceived as representing indigenous aspirations."
"Unilateralism for its own sake is self-defeating. But so is abstract multilateralism. The former absorbs purpose into a sense of special national mission; the latter waters down purpose in a quest for a formal consensus. The challenge for America is to reconcile consultation with vast power."
Saturday, November 06, 2004
I'm not going
This guy was on active duty 87-91, and in the active reserves until '96 to fulfill his 8-year contract. And now they're calling him back, probably due to his skills as a truck driver and refueler.
I served 87-91 on active duty as an M-1 turret mechanic, and my Inactive Ready Reserve commitment ended in '95.
In a related note, a friend at work told of a buddy who had been in the service until he was in a Humvee accident. As a result of the accident, he has a plate in his head and rods in his legs. That resulted in a medical discharge. He recently got called back into service.
But hey, at least we don't have a draft.
I served 87-91 on active duty as an M-1 turret mechanic, and my Inactive Ready Reserve commitment ended in '95.
In a related note, a friend at work told of a buddy who had been in the service until he was in a Humvee accident. As a result of the accident, he has a plate in his head and rods in his legs. That resulted in a medical discharge. He recently got called back into service.
But hey, at least we don't have a draft.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
It's been a long campaign
And I'm drained by this point, like I'm sure the rest of you are. I'll be scarce on this blog for the next couple of weeks as I avoid contentious political discussions and news.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Monday, November 01, 2004
Regarding the recent Iraqi body count estimate
The recent study has problems.
But this period has claimed one victim for sure. A determination to defeat George Bush has led many newspapers, television networks, academics, NGO's--and now even medical journals--to jettison their standards of fairness, restraint, objectivity, and integrity. Whether Bush wins or loses, it will take years for these institutions and organizations to regain the reputations they freely chose to throw away.
But this period has claimed one victim for sure. A determination to defeat George Bush has led many newspapers, television networks, academics, NGO's--and now even medical journals--to jettison their standards of fairness, restraint, objectivity, and integrity. Whether Bush wins or loses, it will take years for these institutions and organizations to regain the reputations they freely chose to throw away.
Saturday, October 30, 2004
Why I'm voting against Bush Tuesday
He has shown disrespect for the Constitution, including:
- Nominating a running mate from the same state as him. Technically, Cheney's Wyoming citizenship came before he was sworn in, but the concept behind having pres & veep from 2 different states (12th Amendment) is to avoid undue influence of any one region. In other words, to avoid the Big Oil ticket we currently have.
- The sneek & peek provision of the Patriot Act violates the unreasonable search and seizure provision of the 4th Amendment.
- The Free Speech Zones violate the right to peaceably assemble, granted in the 1st Amendment.
- Holding Jose Padilla, an American citizen, captured on U.S. soil, for an indefinite time violates his right to a speedy and public trial, as granted in the 6th Amendment. It also deprives him of his liberty, without due process of law, noted in the 5th.
- The Patriot Act's provision gagging librarians from telling people whether the FBI has requested their library records violates the librarians' free speech rights, granted in the 1st.
Now some will point out that Lincoln suspended habeus corpus during a time of constitutional crisis. Ex Parte Milligan, 1866, upholds the right to do so, but only in areas in which martial law has been declared. To date, Bush has not declared martial law as a response to the 9/11 attacks.
Bush also adopted a policy of pre-emptive war, and then said, essentially, that the burden of proof was on the country we invaded.
The strategic goal of re-shaping the Middle East has been hampered, not helped, by the Iraq war. NPR's recent series, "Bordering on Instability", shows that Iraq's neighbors have used the Iraq war to say that now is not the time to implement reforms. Once Iraq settles down, those governments say, then they will revisit planned reforms. Not only that, but Syrians have been radicalized by the notion that they are next on the list.
The execution of the post-combat phase of the war has been abysmal. The dead-enders that Rumsfeld spoke of in the summer of 2003 are still there, with the most recent estimates coming to about 7,000 - 8,000 insurgents with an almost unlimited supply of cash. The Bush administration ignored a great deal of advice from military and state department professionals about how to handle the postwar phase.
Bush not only went the Iraq deal mostly alone, but his administration publicy berated traditional allies in doing so. (Rumsfeld linked Germany to Libya and Cuba, and also knocked Germany and France as "Old Europe".)
Afghanistan has passed Columbia as the world's largest drug producer.
Bin Laden and Zarqawi are still at large.
Bush has been the most fiscally irresponsible president of my lifetime, cutting revenue while increasing spending, both military and non-military.
Instead of fixing the Kyoto treaty, he completely abandoned it.
Bush opposed the creation of the 9/11 Commission.
Anti-Americanism in the Arab world is at an all-time high, somewhere in the 90's, depending on which poll you look at.
Bush has not used America's leverage to push for some resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That is the foremost issue in the minds of Arabs when it comes to anti-American feelings.
A few years after Clinton declared the Era of Big Government was over, Bush expanded entitlements, despite the fact that the liabilities owed to the Baby Boomers are about due. He also created the Department of Homeland Security, which remarkably does not encompass any intelligence agencies. Actually, I'm not sure exactly what the department does outside of tracking down runaway Texas legislators, telling Americans to buy duct tape, and issuing color alerts, which will never rise to red or drop to green.
A second term would be the end of legalized abortions. I've known people who've had them, and they've never been happy about it. However, I think more people will die if it is outlawed.
Bush scoffed at free markets with his steel tariff.
Russia is by all appearances, further from democracy than 4 years ago.
North Korea has probably gone nuclear.
I am not worried about the spending plans Kerry has proposed. He'll have a Republican Congress, and a huge deficit to keep him from enacting much of those programs. He would have to spend 4 years trying to clean up Bush's mess. And if he screws it up, I'll vote him out in '08. But he deserves a crack at it.
Friday, October 29, 2004
Bad timing
BUSH EVENT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: Event workers had been told to fire off confetti pods when Bush said, 'God Bless'... his normal closing line. But 5 minutes before the end of his speech, Bush offered a "God Bless" to Arlene Howard, mother of George Howard a Port Authority of New York/New Jersey Police Officer killed in the World Trade Center... BLAM!!!!! Everyone first ducked -- hard -- then looked up to see confetti falling. Bush looked momentarily stunned, then plain unhappy, then just went on with his speech as the confetti rained to the floor of the Verizon Wireless Arena...
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Is this some sort of elaborate October surprise?
No wonder sensitive parts of Iraq looked cleaner than a licked pussycat.
This Washington Times piece popped up as the Drudge lead today. If half of it is true, then it nullifies Kerry’s core arguments…I mean complaints…against Bush’s strategy and tactics. First, it destroys Kerry’s credibility when it comes to getting “allies” on board when you consider that while we were diplomizin’ with them, they were plotting with Hussein, aiding him to cover their own interests. That we wrangled 1441 out of them is proof of some good steadfast diplomacy on the part of Bush and Powell. That Russia never threatened a veto is remarkable. But expecting them to join in on the liberation was folly. Lesson for Kerry: countries have national interests. That is why his global test nonplussed so many folks. All politics is local.
I also think this incident shows Bush as a deft, cautious and able diplomat. In three years of war, he has done a good job maintaining the public face of diplomacy – he’s been bold, defiant and even demanding, but he’s also shown respect to every leader within the community of nations. When Chirac was mouthing off and telling other leaders and nations that they missed an opportunity to shut up, etc. – Bush consistently showed respect – acknowledging differences in a vague sense, but keeping the atmosphere positive. Some things need greasing. But in the same way that you can’t get blood from a stone, you can’t get the French government to support liberty. That we cooperate with main four antagonistic powers at all is a testament to Bush’s efforts. He’s been professional, courteous and aggressive, – I would dare say like a cowboy. And even when he knows that the antagonist powers are corrupt and double dealing, he likewise knows when to keep his mouth shut. No simple task for a gaffe prone simpleton, right? Meanwhile, Kerry has fallen into Chiracs trap. Kerry can’t make his point about allies until he insults our allies. He can be overheard calling the president a liar and a cheat & he lashes out at veterans that contest his Vietnam record. And he’s supposed to be the smart one! That’s just bad public diplomacy. His private diplomay? I haven’t the slightest clue. He apparently thinks we are so dumb he needn’t bother explaining them to us.
As for the October surprise bit…consider: The NYTimes breaks the missing weapons story ahead of CBS, who wanted to sit on it until right before the election; the story directly says that the explosives were taken since the occupation; Kerry seizes on the story and blasts angrily at Bush for not doing more to safeguard these sites; somewhere in between, NBC says that they were embedded with the 101st when they got to the facility and there was nothing there then, which is at odds with the NYTimes version; Bush does not counter-attack for a whole campaigning day. Rope-a-dope? How did the NYTimes or CBS get the story? Why was this suddenly a story? Kerry continues the attack the next day; Bush retaliates, telling Kerry he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and that is under investigation; now this story. If it has legs and can make it way to the kitchen table in homes everywhere, it could be devastating for Kerry. The play books might call it judo surprise. I’m not really a Rove conspiracy theorist – but the above thought crossed my mind.
This Washington Times piece popped up as the Drudge lead today. If half of it is true, then it nullifies Kerry’s core arguments…I mean complaints…against Bush’s strategy and tactics. First, it destroys Kerry’s credibility when it comes to getting “allies” on board when you consider that while we were diplomizin’ with them, they were plotting with Hussein, aiding him to cover their own interests. That we wrangled 1441 out of them is proof of some good steadfast diplomacy on the part of Bush and Powell. That Russia never threatened a veto is remarkable. But expecting them to join in on the liberation was folly. Lesson for Kerry: countries have national interests. That is why his global test nonplussed so many folks. All politics is local.
I also think this incident shows Bush as a deft, cautious and able diplomat. In three years of war, he has done a good job maintaining the public face of diplomacy – he’s been bold, defiant and even demanding, but he’s also shown respect to every leader within the community of nations. When Chirac was mouthing off and telling other leaders and nations that they missed an opportunity to shut up, etc. – Bush consistently showed respect – acknowledging differences in a vague sense, but keeping the atmosphere positive. Some things need greasing. But in the same way that you can’t get blood from a stone, you can’t get the French government to support liberty. That we cooperate with main four antagonistic powers at all is a testament to Bush’s efforts. He’s been professional, courteous and aggressive, – I would dare say like a cowboy. And even when he knows that the antagonist powers are corrupt and double dealing, he likewise knows when to keep his mouth shut. No simple task for a gaffe prone simpleton, right? Meanwhile, Kerry has fallen into Chiracs trap. Kerry can’t make his point about allies until he insults our allies. He can be overheard calling the president a liar and a cheat & he lashes out at veterans that contest his Vietnam record. And he’s supposed to be the smart one! That’s just bad public diplomacy. His private diplomay? I haven’t the slightest clue. He apparently thinks we are so dumb he needn’t bother explaining them to us.
As for the October surprise bit…consider: The NYTimes breaks the missing weapons story ahead of CBS, who wanted to sit on it until right before the election; the story directly says that the explosives were taken since the occupation; Kerry seizes on the story and blasts angrily at Bush for not doing more to safeguard these sites; somewhere in between, NBC says that they were embedded with the 101st when they got to the facility and there was nothing there then, which is at odds with the NYTimes version; Bush does not counter-attack for a whole campaigning day. Rope-a-dope? How did the NYTimes or CBS get the story? Why was this suddenly a story? Kerry continues the attack the next day; Bush retaliates, telling Kerry he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and that is under investigation; now this story. If it has legs and can make it way to the kitchen table in homes everywhere, it could be devastating for Kerry. The play books might call it judo surprise. I’m not really a Rove conspiracy theorist – but the above thought crossed my mind.
Tag
Bush goes after Kerry for recklessly embracing the missing weapons cache story:
from Drudge
"After repeatedly calling Iraq the wrong war, and a diversion, Senator Kerry this week seemed shocked to learn that Iraq is a dangerous place, full of dangerous weapons..."
"If Senator Kerry had his way... Saddam Hussein would still be in power. He would control those all of those weapons and explosives and could share them with his terrorist friends. Now the senator is making wild charges about missing explosives, when his top foreign policy adviser admits, quote, 'We do not know the facts.' Think about that: The senator is denigrating the actions of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts..."
"Our military is now investigating a number of possible scenarios, including that the explosives may have been moved before our troops even arrived at the site. This investigation is important and it's ongoing. And a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your commander in chief."
from Drudge
"After repeatedly calling Iraq the wrong war, and a diversion, Senator Kerry this week seemed shocked to learn that Iraq is a dangerous place, full of dangerous weapons..."
"If Senator Kerry had his way... Saddam Hussein would still be in power. He would control those all of those weapons and explosives and could share them with his terrorist friends. Now the senator is making wild charges about missing explosives, when his top foreign policy adviser admits, quote, 'We do not know the facts.' Think about that: The senator is denigrating the actions of our troops and commanders in the field without knowing the facts..."
"Our military is now investigating a number of possible scenarios, including that the explosives may have been moved before our troops even arrived at the site. This investigation is important and it's ongoing. And a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your commander in chief."
The newspaper endorsement breakdown
Kerry has picked up more papers than Bush, totaling a circulation of 17.5 million represented by newspapers endorsing Kerry, versus the 11.5 million endorsed by Bush. Kerry, to date, has more switches, too - papers that picked Bush in 2000, versus the switches of papers who endorsed Gore last time but are endorsing Bush this time.
It's not votes delivered, but some people may be swayed.
It's not votes delivered, but some people may be swayed.
Anti-Americanism
Can we really be eliminating more terrorists than are being created when the situation in Iraq has come to this:
"They call American soldiers 'The Jews,' as in, 'Don't go down that street, the Jews set up a roadblock.' " - Scott Pelley of CBS News's "60 Minutes"
"They call American soldiers 'The Jews,' as in, 'Don't go down that street, the Jews set up a roadblock.' " - Scott Pelley of CBS News's "60 Minutes"
Republican women against Bush
From The Observer. Interestingly, one of the women is Mary Lou Halliburton, of the family who founded the oil company. She also worked in the Nixon White House.
Also in the story:
"Judith Allen, another lifelong Republican, has no reticence. This former Superior Court clerk is a member of Republicans for Kerry, which contributes funds to the Democrats.
'I just do not have the sense that Bush is bright. And I'm embarrassed to say that about our President,' she said."
Also in the story:
"Judith Allen, another lifelong Republican, has no reticence. This former Superior Court clerk is a member of Republicans for Kerry, which contributes funds to the Democrats.
'I just do not have the sense that Bush is bright. And I'm embarrassed to say that about our President,' she said."
New Yorker Magazine endorses candidate for president for the first time in 80 years.
They endorsed Kerry.
"The damage visited upon America, and upon America’s standing in the world, by the Bush Administration’s reckless mishandling of the public trust will not easily be undone. And for many voters the desire to see the damage arrested is reason enough to vote for John Kerry. "
"The damage visited upon America, and upon America’s standing in the world, by the Bush Administration’s reckless mishandling of the public trust will not easily be undone. And for many voters the desire to see the damage arrested is reason enough to vote for John Kerry. "
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Round up the usual suspects
What's a scandal these days with out CBS involved? Apparently 60 Minutes had planned to run the weapons cache story on Halloween. Meanwhile, as of today, Kerry is still using it on the stump.
More on the NYTimes weapons cache story
I thought the biggest story the blogosphere would gnaw on this week was going to be the Kerry claim to have met with the whole security council in Cambodia. But it now seems like they are feeding on the NYTimes weapons cache story.
Monday, October 25, 2004
What did Mrs. Edwards mean?
From a recent event covered on C-SPAN
Supporter: Kerry's going to take PA.
Liz Edwards: I know that.
Supporter: I'm just worried there's going to be riots afterwards.
Liz Edwards: Uh.....well...not if we win.
Apparently she's picking up on the same desperation of the left that RCP comments on. (Make sure to click on the "LIAR" link as it epitomizes the Democrat response to the Swiftvets) Do we want a hysterical party in power?
Supporter: Kerry's going to take PA.
Liz Edwards: I know that.
Supporter: I'm just worried there's going to be riots afterwards.
Liz Edwards: Uh.....well...not if we win.
Apparently she's picking up on the same desperation of the left that RCP comments on. (Make sure to click on the "LIAR" link as it epitomizes the Democrat response to the Swiftvets) Do we want a hysterical party in power?
The Guardian Apologizes
The Guardian is apologizing for a recent Bush bashing column calling for the assassination of our leader. When will they apologize for their Bush bashing interview with Jimmy Carter?
Bunker Busting Nukes & Kerry's Opposition to Them
After reading this excellent story my main complaint about Bush was: he's only spending how much on them? Kerry can say he is strong on national security, but he simply isn't.
Kerry is a dangerous alternative
Wrong on the cold war, wrong in Central America & wrong on terrorism. An interesting split in the Wilsonian worldview is discussed in this article.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Just how soon are those Iraqi security forces supposed to come online?
If there are 100,000 trained, cut that number by 50, give or take. Not to mention the deterrent message this sends. But hey, freedom is winning.
Orlando Sentinel endorses Kerry
First Democrat they've endorsed in 40 years.
"Four years ago, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Republican George W. Bush for president based on our trust in him to unite America. We expected him to forge bipartisan solutions to problems while keeping this nation secure and fiscally sound.
This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations."
"Four years ago, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Republican George W. Bush for president based on our trust in him to unite America. We expected him to forge bipartisan solutions to problems while keeping this nation secure and fiscally sound.
This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations."
Friday, October 22, 2004
The New Republic endorses Kerry
From their latest issue:
"The president's war on terrorism, which initially offered a striking
contrast to his special interest-driven domestic agenda, has come to resemble
it. The common thread is ideological certainty untroubled by empirical evidence,
intellectual curiosity, or open debate. The ideology that guides this
president's war on terrorism is more appealing than the corporate cronyism that
guides his domestic policy. But it has been pursued with the same sectarian,
thuggish, and ultimately self-defeating spirit. You cannot lead the world
without listening to it. You cannot make the Middle East more democratic while
making it more anti-American."
"The president's war on terrorism, which initially offered a striking
contrast to his special interest-driven domestic agenda, has come to resemble
it. The common thread is ideological certainty untroubled by empirical evidence,
intellectual curiosity, or open debate. The ideology that guides this
president's war on terrorism is more appealing than the corporate cronyism that
guides his domestic policy. But it has been pursued with the same sectarian,
thuggish, and ultimately self-defeating spirit. You cannot lead the world
without listening to it. You cannot make the Middle East more democratic while
making it more anti-American."
Kerry's secret bargaining chip to bring more allies to our side?
Krauthammer thinks he means to Sell out Israel.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Kerry didn't seem to have a problem with how Tora Bora was handled back in 2001
From Mickey Kaus.
I'd always figured Kerry was on relatively strong ground criticizing the "outsourced" approach at Tora Bora because he must have criticized it at the time. But Tom Maguire of JustOneMinute has come up with a transcript of a "Larry King Live" broadcast on Dec. 14, 2001, during the month-long battle, in which (responding to a question about why we weren't up in the caves using "napalm or flamethrowers"**) Kerry appears to actually endorse a play-it-safe, minimize-U.S.-casualties approach:
"But for the moment, what we are doing, I think, is having its impact and it is the best way to protect our troops and sort of minimalize the proximity, if you will. I think we have been doing this pretty effectively and we should continue to do it that way."
Perhaps Kerry was only referring here to the failure to use flamethrowers (though his language can just as easily be read more broadly). But earlier in the same interview-- in response to the question "how goes it so far in Afghanistan, in your opinion?"-- Kerry generally praises the U.S.'s strategy, which even as he spoke was relying heavily on proxies:
"I think we have been smart, I think the administration leadership has done it well and we are on right track."
Kerry certainly isn't critical of the "outsourcing." Nor was this interview at the beginning of the Tora Bora seige, when its contours were unclear. It was in the battle's final days, more than a week after bin Laden (by some accounts) had already escaped, at a time when even Donald Rumsfeld was having public doubts about our likely success. ... P.S.: If anyone has evidence of real-time Kerry criticism of the Tora Bora strategy (which may well exist) I'll be glad to reference it. Update: Silence. ...
After hearing his endless drone about flu vaccines, outsourcing, allies and Tora Bora, I bet Kerry would give his left nut for a real talking point.
I'd always figured Kerry was on relatively strong ground criticizing the "outsourced" approach at Tora Bora because he must have criticized it at the time. But Tom Maguire of JustOneMinute has come up with a transcript of a "Larry King Live" broadcast on Dec. 14, 2001, during the month-long battle, in which (responding to a question about why we weren't up in the caves using "napalm or flamethrowers"**) Kerry appears to actually endorse a play-it-safe, minimize-U.S.-casualties approach:
"But for the moment, what we are doing, I think, is having its impact and it is the best way to protect our troops and sort of minimalize the proximity, if you will. I think we have been doing this pretty effectively and we should continue to do it that way."
Perhaps Kerry was only referring here to the failure to use flamethrowers (though his language can just as easily be read more broadly). But earlier in the same interview-- in response to the question "how goes it so far in Afghanistan, in your opinion?"-- Kerry generally praises the U.S.'s strategy, which even as he spoke was relying heavily on proxies:
"I think we have been smart, I think the administration leadership has done it well and we are on right track."
Kerry certainly isn't critical of the "outsourcing." Nor was this interview at the beginning of the Tora Bora seige, when its contours were unclear. It was in the battle's final days, more than a week after bin Laden (by some accounts) had already escaped, at a time when even Donald Rumsfeld was having public doubts about our likely success. ... P.S.: If anyone has evidence of real-time Kerry criticism of the Tora Bora strategy (which may well exist) I'll be glad to reference it. Update: Silence. ...
After hearing his endless drone about flu vaccines, outsourcing, allies and Tora Bora, I bet Kerry would give his left nut for a real talking point.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Bordering on instability
From NPR's series. It's an interesting examination of how the Iraq invasion and the Bush administration's laissez-faire approach to the Israeli-Palistinian issue have shaped perceptions of America in the Middle East. So far, Syria, Jordan and Kuwait. The series continues through the week.
Monday, October 18, 2004
Bush in New Jersey
Bush had a solid speech in New Jersey today. He's all over Kerry's world view:
THE PRESIDENT: This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country. (Applause.) The war on terror is a real war, with deadly enemies, not simply a police operation. In an era of weapons of mass destruction, waiting for threats to arrive at our doorsteps is to invite disaster. Tyrants and terrorists will not give us polite notice before they attack our country. As long as I'm the Commander-in-Chief, I will confront dangers abroad so we do not have to face them here at home.
The case of one terrorist shows what is at stake. The terrorist leader we face in Iraq today, the one responsible for beheading American hostages, the one responsible for many of the car bombings and attacks against Iraq is a man named Zarqawi. Before September the 11th, Zarqawi ran a camp in Afghanistan that trained terrorists in the use of explosives and poisons, until coalition forces destroyed that camp. (Applause.) He fled to Saddam Hussein's Iraq, where he received medical care and set up operations with some two dozen terrorist associates. He operated in Baghdad and worked with associates in northern Iraq, who ran camps to train terrorists, and conducted chemical and biological experiments, until coalition forces arrived and ended those operations. (Applause.) With nowhere to operate openly, Zarqawi has gone underground and is making a stand in Iraq.
Here, the difference between my opponent and me is very clear. Senator Kerry believes that fighting Zarqawi and other terrorists in Iraq is a "diversion" from the war on terror. I believe that fighting and defeating these killers in Iraq is a central commitment in the war on terror. (Applause.)
If Zarqawi and his associates were not busy fighting American forces in Iraq, does Senator Kerry think they would be leading productive and peaceful lives? (Laughter.) Clearly, these killers would be plotting and acting to murder innocent civilians in free nations, including our own. By facing these terrorists far away, our military is making the United States of America more secure.
I liked this endorsement from Captain Ed, which crystallized my thoughts. The NYTimes second Kerry endorsement could not tempt me to stray. Finally, since the Austrailian re-election of John Howard failed to find headline space, here's Mark Stein on the subject.
THE PRESIDENT: This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country. (Applause.) The war on terror is a real war, with deadly enemies, not simply a police operation. In an era of weapons of mass destruction, waiting for threats to arrive at our doorsteps is to invite disaster. Tyrants and terrorists will not give us polite notice before they attack our country. As long as I'm the Commander-in-Chief, I will confront dangers abroad so we do not have to face them here at home.
The case of one terrorist shows what is at stake. The terrorist leader we face in Iraq today, the one responsible for beheading American hostages, the one responsible for many of the car bombings and attacks against Iraq is a man named Zarqawi. Before September the 11th, Zarqawi ran a camp in Afghanistan that trained terrorists in the use of explosives and poisons, until coalition forces destroyed that camp. (Applause.) He fled to Saddam Hussein's Iraq, where he received medical care and set up operations with some two dozen terrorist associates. He operated in Baghdad and worked with associates in northern Iraq, who ran camps to train terrorists, and conducted chemical and biological experiments, until coalition forces arrived and ended those operations. (Applause.) With nowhere to operate openly, Zarqawi has gone underground and is making a stand in Iraq.
Here, the difference between my opponent and me is very clear. Senator Kerry believes that fighting Zarqawi and other terrorists in Iraq is a "diversion" from the war on terror. I believe that fighting and defeating these killers in Iraq is a central commitment in the war on terror. (Applause.)
If Zarqawi and his associates were not busy fighting American forces in Iraq, does Senator Kerry think they would be leading productive and peaceful lives? (Laughter.) Clearly, these killers would be plotting and acting to murder innocent civilians in free nations, including our own. By facing these terrorists far away, our military is making the United States of America more secure.
I liked this endorsement from Captain Ed, which crystallized my thoughts. The NYTimes second Kerry endorsement could not tempt me to stray. Finally, since the Austrailian re-election of John Howard failed to find headline space, here's Mark Stein on the subject.
Friday, October 15, 2004
Koizumi voices support for Bush
I don't know how wise it is for Koizumi to say anything because of the implications of a Kerry victory, but his comment is welcome just the same.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Edward Prescott wants bigger tax cuts
How did such an economist make off with a Nobel prize without passing the anti-Bush litmus test?
"Otherwise, This Is Just a Success Story"
If John Howard had lost in Australia, or if the Afghan elections were less than successful, no doubt both would be getting much more coverage.
More on the CNSNews.com Iraqi WMD Story
Looks like the news organization released some of the documents.
Monday, October 11, 2004
The Belmont Club
has a take on the Kerry's Undeclared War from the NY Times.
the quote that sticks out to me:
[when asked how 9/11 changed Kerry personally or politically]
''It accelerated -- '' He paused. ''I mean, it didn't change me much at all. It just sort of accelerated, confirmed in me, the urgency of doing the things I thought we needed to be doing. I mean, to me, it wasn't as transformational as it was a kind of anger, a frustration and an urgency that we weren't doing the kinds of things necessary to prevent it and to deal with it.''
the quote that sticks out to me:
[when asked how 9/11 changed Kerry personally or politically]
''It accelerated -- '' He paused. ''I mean, it didn't change me much at all. It just sort of accelerated, confirmed in me, the urgency of doing the things I thought we needed to be doing. I mean, to me, it wasn't as transformational as it was a kind of anger, a frustration and an urgency that we weren't doing the kinds of things necessary to prevent it and to deal with it.''
Saturday, October 09, 2004
GREAT NEWS FOR THE U.S. IN THE WAR ON TERROR
Australia re-elects Prime Minister John Howard, one of our staunchest allies.
Afghan elections passed peacefully.
Afghan elections passed peacefully.
More ramifications of reckless fiscal policy
Getting increasingly indebted to China cannot be good for American interests.
An interesting take on Carter's presidential legacy
From yesterday's Kansas City Star business section:
"One of the most critical moments in America's economic history occurred 25 years ago this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker unveiled what proved to be his highly successful plan to slay the hyperinflation dragon.
The resulting agony doomed Jimmy Carter to a one-term presidency, which Carter probably sensed was his fate when he chose Volcker to be his general in the war against inflation. Thus, Carter deserves much more credit than he gets for his political courage in the name of ridding the economy of hyperinflation's curse.
Unless Carter had chosen a person with the strength of Volcker's convictions, it's unlikely the past two decades of prosperity would have been possible."
"One of the most critical moments in America's economic history occurred 25 years ago this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker unveiled what proved to be his highly successful plan to slay the hyperinflation dragon.
The resulting agony doomed Jimmy Carter to a one-term presidency, which Carter probably sensed was his fate when he chose Volcker to be his general in the war against inflation. Thus, Carter deserves much more credit than he gets for his political courage in the name of ridding the economy of hyperinflation's curse.
Unless Carter had chosen a person with the strength of Volcker's convictions, it's unlikely the past two decades of prosperity would have been possible."
Friday, October 08, 2004
UN Oil for Fraud getting more exposure with Duelfer report
Bush can use the fraud angle to show that Saddam was beating the UN sanctions (or as Bush already said yesterday, that he was 'gaming the system,') to validate the timing of the war. He can also use it to dismantle Kerry's claim that he can bring allies on board as well as his charge that Bush failed the global test. Some takes on the report & the scandal here and here and here. Bush will have to delicately avoid coming down on the countries that were heavily involved in the scandal, lest he put off our allies as well.
October 7th Bushism
from my Daily Bushism calendar:
in reference to Dick Cheney; Nightline; July 21, 2000
Ted Koppel: So he's your lightning rod?
Gov. Bush: More than that, he's my sounding rod.
in reference to Dick Cheney; Nightline; July 21, 2000
Ted Koppel: So he's your lightning rod?
Gov. Bush: More than that, he's my sounding rod.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Newsweek lays and egg
Gosh, where to begin. I must admit that I felt tired immediately after reading the Newsweek article, Rewriting History, because the authors are bent primarily on dismantling the administration and not on trying to determine the real history of this war. I’m a self-admitted pro-Bush hack. The writers of the Newsweek article, Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball, are award-winning journalists and, therefore, assume an air of objectivity and authority. They’ve been on the terrorism beat professionally for years and they have access to resources I don’t. And yet, if I may be so bold, these two fellows wrote an article that from the very first sentence is anything but objective or authoritative.
“With virtually all of the administration’s original case for war in Iraq in tatters…” Tatters? Hardly. Even by the article’s own admission, several of the “original” arguments are true: Iraq was recognized as a state sponsor of terror, it harbored Abu Nidal in Baghdad & it paid the families of Palestinian suicide bombers $25K. Those facts aren’t disputed. However, the authors seem to believe that these are insignificant because Syria was a sponsor of terror, Abu Nidal was killed before the war and several other Arab countries supported the families of suicide bombers. Granted, because Syria is a state sponsoring terror it would be foolish to press Iraq’s sponsorship of terror to them to get them to pass a resolution. But does that make it less of a concern for the U.S.? Or that Saudi Arabia assists the families of suicide bombers? As for Abu Nidal, the fact that we knew he was in Baghdad is significant because Saddam’s willingness to deal with such a character (regardless of whether he ultimately had him killed) strongly suggests that Saddam is very capable of associating and using terrorists.
I don’t understand the angle that because you put one argument for the war in front of the others that the others lose their value. God forbid that the administration craft its arguments in such a way as to actually win support in the U.N. or even among the American people! (Incidentally, there’s a reason why the WMD argument rose to the forefront, and it wasn’t entirely the doing of the Bush administration – but that can be discussed later).
The article states:
“But except for the allegation about Iraqi ties to al Qaeda – a claim that is now more in question than ever – the other examples cited by Cheney in Tuesday night’s debate never have been previously emphasized by Bush administrations officials, and for good reasons.”
The article then goes on to relate Powell’s case before the Security Council and what he didn’t mention. Big deal. Powell was relating his case to the resolutions, so it naturally focused on WMDs. And suggesting that allegations about Iraqi ties to al Qaeda are now questioned more than ever is not entirely true. For the most part, it has been the same people who have dismissed these ties all along, with a few stray quotes from some other officials thrown into the mix.
The article erroneously states that the September 11th Commission “concluded there was no ‘collaborative operational relationship’ between Iraq and al Qaeda.” The commission never said that. Here’s the full quote from the report from page 66:
“But to date we have seen no evidence that these or earlier contacts ever developed into a collaborative operational relation. Nor have we seen evidence indicating that Iraq cooperated with al Qaeda in developing or carrying out any contacts against the United States.”
That is different than what the article says they said. First, the role of the 9/11 Commission was not to find ties between Iraq and al Qaeda, but to assess the pre 9/11 intelligence situation. As such, their job is not to validate or invalidate such a connection. Second, the Commission found no evidence regarding an operational connection, but they did not conclude there was not one. How could they?
The article then discusses Zarqawi. That Zarqawi received medical treatment in Baghdad is not really questioned. Personally, I consider that, in and of itself, harboring a terrorist. Somehow, the authors think that because Zarqawi went first to Iran, he must therefore not have a consequential relationship with Iraq. And because he supervised a poison facility in the Kurdish north, that it must not have had anything to do with Saddam. Absurd! The article doesn’t explain that the Kurdish group in that area was at odds with other Kurd factions and had some relations with Saddam. Also, Iranians don’t like Kurds either. Does that mean that Zarqawi’s visit to Iran was insignificant? To believe the way the authors believe, you would have to think it is impossible for two groups unfriendly with each other to ever form an alliance. But history proves time and again that this is not true.
The article is harsh on Cheney for saying that “I have not suggested there’s no connection between Iraq and 9/11.” The authors think he did make such a suggestion because he referred to the Mohammed Atta’s meeting in Prague with Iraqi intelligence officials in April 2001. The article again misrepresents the 9/11 Commission report when it says the commission debunked the allegation when the panel found “abundant evidence that Atta was actually in the United States at the time the rendezvous supposedly took place.” First, there was no debunking. The commission was unable to confirm or deny the allegation. The “abundant evidence” suggesting the allegation was false is not abundant at all. The report says that the Czech intelligence claim is from a single eye-witness source and that the Czech intelligence agency says that they are 70% certain of the claim.
The “abundant evidence” to the contrary is from the FBI:
1) On 4/4 there is a photo of Atta from a surveillance camera in Virginia Beach, FL.
2) On 4/6, 4/9, 4/10 & 4/11 there is cell phone activity from Coral Springs, FL on Atta cell phone account.
Neither the U.S. or the Czech Republic was able to find a paper trail of Atta leaving or arriving either country during that time. They do not know if he used an alias, but cite that he didn’t during previous trips. (Of course, if I was meeting with Iraqi intelligence, I would make an exception to my normal practices and try to go about the meeting in an inconspicuous way).
Regarding the cell phone activity, the report states:
“We cannot confirm that he [Atta] placed those calls.”
The report later says:
“…These findings cannot absolutely rule out the possibility that Atta was in Prague on April 9, 2001.”
The report also says:
“The available evidence does not support the original Czeck report of an Atta-Ani meeting.”
Cheney was wrong when he said in 2001 that the Czech claim was “pretty well confirmed…” but he was correct when he later said “we’ve never been able to develop anymore of the yet, either in terms of confirming it or discrediting it. We just don’t know.” Regardless, though, saying that Atta met with Iraqis does not mean that Iraqis were involved in the attacks. But it does raise questions of such involvement.
I’ve never claimed to put much stock, if any, in the 9/11 Report because I thought it was held too soon and was bound to be hip deep in politics, pro and anti Bush. However, alarm bells go off in my head every time that I hear it wrongly used to suggest Bush lied. Likewise, knowing that we have a mountain of Iraqi documents that have been un-translated, I find it hard to understand how Charles Duelfer, in his recent report, can conclude, according to the article, “once and for all that Iraq had no chemical weapons at the time of the U.S. invasion.” Is the weapon inspector so certain that the stockpiles were destroyed after the first war?
The article also suggests that the recent report from Duelfer claims that Saddam’s nuke program was not being reconstituted but was actually decaying. A previous story on the same subject said the report indicated it was dormant. Which is it?
Quite frankly, I take what comes out of these reports with a grain of salt. Again, I’ll say that I don’t think our intelligence failed in Iraq. What strikes me, though, is how little they know for sure, before the war and after. That’s part and parcel of the intelligence game. There are always questions and misconceptions and false information, etc. when dealing with intelligence. Playing the hindsight game with our intelligence in order to dismantle the reasons for the war is a fool’s game and is counter-productive for the success of the war. An objective analysis is one thing, but that is not was the authors of this article are striving for. It doesn’t matter that they try to balance their story with chaff in the form of Edward’s false claims. Their main goal is to paint Cheney as a liar and it doesn’t seem to matter to them that they have to be deceptive in order to do it.
Unfortunately, the way the world works, the administration cannot adequately defend the nation using only foolproof evidence from our intelligence agencies that will stand up in court. Bush had to base his decision on what was known, what was thought to be known and what was not known. He had to consider Saddam’s and al Qaeda’s hatred of the U.S., their past behavior, etc. That several states in the Middle East support terror doesn’t mean you can’t go after one in particular. It’s also not necessarily wise to go after one state over another because you believe their ties to terror are closer. At least Bush has his eye on the whole region when dealing with Iraq. His critics don’t. He recognizes that taking out Saddam is vital in reforming the region. It puts us in a better position to deal with Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the rest of region. That’s why we went to war before Iraq was an imminent threat.
“With virtually all of the administration’s original case for war in Iraq in tatters…” Tatters? Hardly. Even by the article’s own admission, several of the “original” arguments are true: Iraq was recognized as a state sponsor of terror, it harbored Abu Nidal in Baghdad & it paid the families of Palestinian suicide bombers $25K. Those facts aren’t disputed. However, the authors seem to believe that these are insignificant because Syria was a sponsor of terror, Abu Nidal was killed before the war and several other Arab countries supported the families of suicide bombers. Granted, because Syria is a state sponsoring terror it would be foolish to press Iraq’s sponsorship of terror to them to get them to pass a resolution. But does that make it less of a concern for the U.S.? Or that Saudi Arabia assists the families of suicide bombers? As for Abu Nidal, the fact that we knew he was in Baghdad is significant because Saddam’s willingness to deal with such a character (regardless of whether he ultimately had him killed) strongly suggests that Saddam is very capable of associating and using terrorists.
I don’t understand the angle that because you put one argument for the war in front of the others that the others lose their value. God forbid that the administration craft its arguments in such a way as to actually win support in the U.N. or even among the American people! (Incidentally, there’s a reason why the WMD argument rose to the forefront, and it wasn’t entirely the doing of the Bush administration – but that can be discussed later).
The article states:
“But except for the allegation about Iraqi ties to al Qaeda – a claim that is now more in question than ever – the other examples cited by Cheney in Tuesday night’s debate never have been previously emphasized by Bush administrations officials, and for good reasons.”
The article then goes on to relate Powell’s case before the Security Council and what he didn’t mention. Big deal. Powell was relating his case to the resolutions, so it naturally focused on WMDs. And suggesting that allegations about Iraqi ties to al Qaeda are now questioned more than ever is not entirely true. For the most part, it has been the same people who have dismissed these ties all along, with a few stray quotes from some other officials thrown into the mix.
The article erroneously states that the September 11th Commission “concluded there was no ‘collaborative operational relationship’ between Iraq and al Qaeda.” The commission never said that. Here’s the full quote from the report from page 66:
“But to date we have seen no evidence that these or earlier contacts ever developed into a collaborative operational relation. Nor have we seen evidence indicating that Iraq cooperated with al Qaeda in developing or carrying out any contacts against the United States.”
That is different than what the article says they said. First, the role of the 9/11 Commission was not to find ties between Iraq and al Qaeda, but to assess the pre 9/11 intelligence situation. As such, their job is not to validate or invalidate such a connection. Second, the Commission found no evidence regarding an operational connection, but they did not conclude there was not one. How could they?
The article then discusses Zarqawi. That Zarqawi received medical treatment in Baghdad is not really questioned. Personally, I consider that, in and of itself, harboring a terrorist. Somehow, the authors think that because Zarqawi went first to Iran, he must therefore not have a consequential relationship with Iraq. And because he supervised a poison facility in the Kurdish north, that it must not have had anything to do with Saddam. Absurd! The article doesn’t explain that the Kurdish group in that area was at odds with other Kurd factions and had some relations with Saddam. Also, Iranians don’t like Kurds either. Does that mean that Zarqawi’s visit to Iran was insignificant? To believe the way the authors believe, you would have to think it is impossible for two groups unfriendly with each other to ever form an alliance. But history proves time and again that this is not true.
The article is harsh on Cheney for saying that “I have not suggested there’s no connection between Iraq and 9/11.” The authors think he did make such a suggestion because he referred to the Mohammed Atta’s meeting in Prague with Iraqi intelligence officials in April 2001. The article again misrepresents the 9/11 Commission report when it says the commission debunked the allegation when the panel found “abundant evidence that Atta was actually in the United States at the time the rendezvous supposedly took place.” First, there was no debunking. The commission was unable to confirm or deny the allegation. The “abundant evidence” suggesting the allegation was false is not abundant at all. The report says that the Czech intelligence claim is from a single eye-witness source and that the Czech intelligence agency says that they are 70% certain of the claim.
The “abundant evidence” to the contrary is from the FBI:
1) On 4/4 there is a photo of Atta from a surveillance camera in Virginia Beach, FL.
2) On 4/6, 4/9, 4/10 & 4/11 there is cell phone activity from Coral Springs, FL on Atta cell phone account.
Neither the U.S. or the Czech Republic was able to find a paper trail of Atta leaving or arriving either country during that time. They do not know if he used an alias, but cite that he didn’t during previous trips. (Of course, if I was meeting with Iraqi intelligence, I would make an exception to my normal practices and try to go about the meeting in an inconspicuous way).
Regarding the cell phone activity, the report states:
“We cannot confirm that he [Atta] placed those calls.”
The report later says:
“…These findings cannot absolutely rule out the possibility that Atta was in Prague on April 9, 2001.”
The report also says:
“The available evidence does not support the original Czeck report of an Atta-Ani meeting.”
Cheney was wrong when he said in 2001 that the Czech claim was “pretty well confirmed…” but he was correct when he later said “we’ve never been able to develop anymore of the yet, either in terms of confirming it or discrediting it. We just don’t know.” Regardless, though, saying that Atta met with Iraqis does not mean that Iraqis were involved in the attacks. But it does raise questions of such involvement.
I’ve never claimed to put much stock, if any, in the 9/11 Report because I thought it was held too soon and was bound to be hip deep in politics, pro and anti Bush. However, alarm bells go off in my head every time that I hear it wrongly used to suggest Bush lied. Likewise, knowing that we have a mountain of Iraqi documents that have been un-translated, I find it hard to understand how Charles Duelfer, in his recent report, can conclude, according to the article, “once and for all that Iraq had no chemical weapons at the time of the U.S. invasion.” Is the weapon inspector so certain that the stockpiles were destroyed after the first war?
The article also suggests that the recent report from Duelfer claims that Saddam’s nuke program was not being reconstituted but was actually decaying. A previous story on the same subject said the report indicated it was dormant. Which is it?
Quite frankly, I take what comes out of these reports with a grain of salt. Again, I’ll say that I don’t think our intelligence failed in Iraq. What strikes me, though, is how little they know for sure, before the war and after. That’s part and parcel of the intelligence game. There are always questions and misconceptions and false information, etc. when dealing with intelligence. Playing the hindsight game with our intelligence in order to dismantle the reasons for the war is a fool’s game and is counter-productive for the success of the war. An objective analysis is one thing, but that is not was the authors of this article are striving for. It doesn’t matter that they try to balance their story with chaff in the form of Edward’s false claims. Their main goal is to paint Cheney as a liar and it doesn’t seem to matter to them that they have to be deceptive in order to do it.
Unfortunately, the way the world works, the administration cannot adequately defend the nation using only foolproof evidence from our intelligence agencies that will stand up in court. Bush had to base his decision on what was known, what was thought to be known and what was not known. He had to consider Saddam’s and al Qaeda’s hatred of the U.S., their past behavior, etc. That several states in the Middle East support terror doesn’t mean you can’t go after one in particular. It’s also not necessarily wise to go after one state over another because you believe their ties to terror are closer. At least Bush has his eye on the whole region when dealing with Iraq. His critics don’t. He recognizes that taking out Saddam is vital in reforming the region. It puts us in a better position to deal with Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the rest of region. That’s why we went to war before Iraq was an imminent threat.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Hunting Zarqawi
In the debate, Cheney said of Zarqawi,
So, if he was there before the war, and if he was a reason for us to invade, and if we know he's still in Baghdad today, why haven't we caught him? Is it because we have too few troops to do the job, even today? The administration's claims of winning the war on terror are tiresome, especially when Zarqawi and Bin Laden are still out there.
He set up shop in Baghdad, where he oversaw the poisons facility up at Kermal
(ph), where the terrorists were developing ricin and other deadly substances to
use.
We know he's still in Baghdad today. He is responsible for most of the
major car bombings that have killed or maimed thousands of people. He's the one
you will see on the evening news beheading hostages.
So, if he was there before the war, and if he was a reason for us to invade, and if we know he's still in Baghdad today, why haven't we caught him? Is it because we have too few troops to do the job, even today? The administration's claims of winning the war on terror are tiresome, especially when Zarqawi and Bin Laden are still out there.
Democrats fail....
to bring back the draft. I guess they managed to scare a few kids with it, though.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Monday, October 04, 2004
Sunday, October 03, 2004
Saturday, October 02, 2004
The first debate
Look, the victor trails blood!
The undecided voters have a pretty clear choice between the two candidates. The visions on both sides were well stated, but many Bush pundits were disappointed because they expected Bush to deliver some deathblows to Kerry. In contrast, Kerry supporters were very happy that Kerry not only survived, but kept his cool and came about as close as he has come to planting his feet into something resembling a stance. The problem, though, for Kerry is that his stance is near the Howard Dean position. That’s about the same as ceding national security as an issue altogether. For a candidate that has concluded that the main issue is the war, what does he have left?
Kerry suffered some deep cuts from the debate. Both candidates headed back to the campaign trail. Kerry has some momentum and has temporarily pacified his base. But he doesn’t have much in the way of new ammunition to use against Bush. Meanwhile, he gave the president a couple of talking points that will haunt him for the next month:
KERRY: [referring to the decision to use force] But if and when you do it, Jim, you have to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.
The global test…no matter how he wants to explain this, it’s a loser for the general electorate, though it doubtless shored up his base. It is consistent with his root message of allowing more time for the inspections and building the coalition. Nevermind how unrealistic that is.
The undecided voters have a pretty clear choice between the two candidates. The visions on both sides were well stated, but many Bush pundits were disappointed because they expected Bush to deliver some deathblows to Kerry. In contrast, Kerry supporters were very happy that Kerry not only survived, but kept his cool and came about as close as he has come to planting his feet into something resembling a stance. The problem, though, for Kerry is that his stance is near the Howard Dean position. That’s about the same as ceding national security as an issue altogether. For a candidate that has concluded that the main issue is the war, what does he have left?
Kerry suffered some deep cuts from the debate. Both candidates headed back to the campaign trail. Kerry has some momentum and has temporarily pacified his base. But he doesn’t have much in the way of new ammunition to use against Bush. Meanwhile, he gave the president a couple of talking points that will haunt him for the next month:
KERRY: [referring to the decision to use force] But if and when you do it, Jim, you have to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.
The global test…no matter how he wants to explain this, it’s a loser for the general electorate, though it doubtless shored up his base. It is consistent with his root message of allowing more time for the inspections and building the coalition. Nevermind how unrealistic that is.
KERRY: Right now the president is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to research bunker-busting nuclear weapons. The United States is pursuing a new set of nuclear weapons. It doesn't make sense. You talk about mixed messages. We're telling other people, "You can't have nuclear weapons," but we're pursuing a new nuclear weapon that we might even contemplate using. Not this president. I'm going to shut that program down, and we're going to make it clear to the world we're serious about containing nuclear proliferation.
Again, his core will agree to this, but the rest of us are scared stiff. What doesn’t make sense? Afghanistan showed a need and a use for bunker busting nukes. What happened to promising that our forces would be the best equipped in the world?
The exchange that led up to this point was also telling:
LEHRER: If you are elected president, what will you take to that office thinking is the single most serious threat to the national security to the United States?
KERRY: Nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation. There's some 600-plus tons of unsecured material still in the former Soviet Union and Russia. At the rate that the president is currently securing it, it'll take 13 years to get it…
BUSH: I agree with my opponent that the biggest threat facing this country is weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a terrorist network…
When asked to clarify, the difference became more apparent:
LEHRER: Just for this one-minute discussion here, just for whatever seconds it takes: So it's correct to say, that if somebody is listening to this, that both of you agree, if you're reelected, Mr. President, and if you are elected, the single most serious threat you believe, both of you believe, is nuclear proliferation?
BUSH: In the hands of a terrorist enemy.
KERRY: Weapons of mass destruction, nuclear proliferation.
So Bush is primarily concerned about keeping WMDs from the hands of terrorists. Kerry believes in eliminating the weapons so they will not be available to terrorists. Kerry thinks we should lead the way in disarming and voluntarily stop developing our own programs. Bush believes in maintaining an edge in nuclear forces while dealing with the terrorists. Kerry seems partial to a cold war stance, a few decades late.
Bush started the debate pretty strongly, but after about 30 minutes he had pretty much said what he had to say. He probably should have expanded his arguments. His circling attacks about Kerry dismissing the contributions of our allies and his mixed messages no doubt nauseated some, but those charges are going to stick to Kerry in a way that Kerry hasn’t been able to get anything to stick to Bush. Stubborness? Please. Most American’s I know pride themselves on being seen as stubborn. That’s not a trait you want lacking in your wartime president.
Kerry had to contort more awkwardly when changing from Iraq to N. Korea. When Kerry said he wanted both bilateral and 6-party talks, Bush nailed him:
BUSH: The minute we have bilateral talks, the six-party talks will unwind. That's exactly what Kim Jong Il wants.
There’s no real contradiction when Bush defends going into Iraq without France or Germany and then insists that we need six way talks including strong Chinese involvement, to deal with N. Korea. Kerry needed to show some innovative way in dealing with N. Korea that was better than what the Bush administration has. He didn’t do that.
On Iran, Kerry also showed weakness:
KERRY: I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel, test them, see whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes. If they weren't willing to work a deal, then we could have put sanctions together. The president did nothing.
BUSH: … my opponent said where he worked to put sanctions on Iran -- we've already sanctioned Iran. We can't sanction them any more. There are sanctions in place on Iran.
Again, no preferrable option was offered. In fact, Kerry's plan is to provide nuclear fuel to the Iranians.
Kerry also seemed hazy on some stray facts (one of the few consistencies in his campaign):
KERRY:… And smart means not diverting your attention from the real war on terror in Afghanistan against Osama bin Laden and taking if off to Iraq where the 9/11 Commission confirms there was no connection to 9/11 itself and Saddam Hussein, and where the reason for going to war was weapons of mass destruction, not the removal of Saddam Hussein.
Bless his heart, he tried to be more accurate by specifying 9/11 instead of al Qaeda, but the statement is still untrue. The 9/11 Commission never confirmed there was no connection, it simply said the had no evidence to suggest direct connections. Also, there were more reasons than one for going to war with Iraq. The removal of Saddam was one of them.
Kerry later let his guard down regarding the distinction between Al Qaida and9/11:
Kerry: But what he has said is that, even knowing there were no weapons of mass destruction, even knowing there was no imminent threat, even knowing there was no connection with Al Qaida, he would still have done everything the same way. Those are his words.
No wonder Bush looks so annoyed in those reaction shots. What outlandish accusations. No imminent threat? That again? Bush never said Iraq was an imminent threat. We know Saddam had weapons programs that he wanted to resume. We know there was a connection between Al Qaida and Saddam. The nature of that connection can be argued over, but there was a connection. But how does Kerry characterize such a disingenuous remark:
KERRY: So what I'm trying to do is just talk the truth to the American people and to the world.
That’s right, just talk the truth, keep it real! For the next month, Bush will be able to hammer Kerry on “global tests”, bunker busters and bilateral talks with N. Korea. Aside from a clever DNC video of Bush’s facial expressions, Kerry came away with nothing substantive from the debates.
Kerry may be happy now, but that's because he doesn't realize he's bleeding.
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