Sunday, March 19, 2006

3 Years in Iraq: a war that is saving lives?

Using my Noam Chomsky calculator (not known for accuracy), take the 50K Iraqi kids he estimated to be dying each year because of sanctions before the war, multiply it by three for the years since the sanctions have been lifted, subtract 35K for the estimated Iraqi civilian lives lost since the invasion and this Iraq war has saved Iraqis about 115,000 net lives. Assuming the left believes 100,000 have died since the war, then the lives saved is still 50,000 and growing. Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story: we don't know the number of children lost to sanctions, we arenfactoringring in the adults that were killed by Hussein's regime (many buried shoulder to shoulder), and we don't know if the general consensus estimate of 30K is accurate. Yet, as the overall violence in the country slowly subsides, we have two prospects: 1) keep on the job so that Iraq can continue to stabilize and prosper, in which case the lives saved per the Chomsky calculator will grow astronomically; or 2) pull out and let country disintegrate - which would mean a lot more dead Iraqis. Just what are the anti-war people protesting?

Update: sorta related. Since I poke fun at Fareed Zakaria a lot, I figured I'd link a column of his that I thought was good, especially the summation.

Update 2: Gateway lists some missed predictions.

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