Thursday, July 01, 2004

Worst-case Could be one of the following three, but I doubt a combination of them: 1) another attack on the scale of 9/11 or greater [though not necessarily in the US]; 2) a Kerry victory which, while maintaining the presence in Iraq and continuing the reconstruction, doesn’t advance on the momentum of reform in the Middle East [its way too soon to let the dust settle – a representative government in Iraq will help change the region, but far better with U.S. pressure]; 3) a steady vigorous campaign against Iraqi oil pipelines and various engines of industry the considerably cripple the emerging government.

Expected A long summer of steady attacks aimed at Iraqis and the coalition alike; the capture of Zarqawi during the summer; and enough good things to provide a positive sense of direction about where Iraq is going; a possible Bush victory where he actually gets the popular vote; and an improving situation in Iraq thereafter along with some positive developments in countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt; the capture of Osama or the excavation of his body in the next few years; a peaceful solution in N. Korea; and (for me) vacation in Baghdad, spring 2010 where I can visit all the newly opened museums. Peace between Palestinian and Israel in about 30 to 40 years if Sharon pulls out of settlements and finishes the wall.

Best case All of the above; the collapse of the Mullahs in Iran; vacation Baghdad, summer 2008; possible extension of my trip to Mecca (okay I’m stretching it).

Disclaimer There’s the chance that Kerry might actually show resolve on the war on terror[Confucius say: even liberal senator make moderate president in two party nation]. If he’s elected, crushed as I’ll be, I’ll support almost any vigorous strategy he employs.

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